The race to secure Europe's two direct places at Rugby World
Cup 2011 in New Zealand resumes this weekend with European Nations
Cup matches in Russia, Georgia and Romania.
Georgia and Russia currently occupy the two coveted spots at
the halfway stage of the top tier; positions which would see them
qualify for RWC 2011 as Europe 1 and Europe 2 to join Pool B and
Pool C respectively.
The RWC 2011 dream will still be alive for the side finishing
third as they will face either Lithuania or the Division 2A winner
to become Europe's representative in the cross-continental
play-off to decide the final qualifier.
Portugal lie third with 12 points, only two points behind
leaders Georgia and one adrift of Russia, their opponents in Sochi
on Saturday. Romania (nine) and Spain (seven) still also harbour
their own qualification dreams.
Of this quintet, only Russia have never graced the Rugby
World Cup stage, Georgia having played in 2003 and 2007, Romania an
ever present, Spain in back 1999 and Portugal in 2007.
That, though, is a statistic the Russians hope to address
over the next six weeks with Howard Thomas, Vice President of the
Rugby Union of Russia, admitting that qualification was
"singularly the most important thing on our horizon".
World Cup targets for Russia
"Qualification for Rugby World Cup 2011, the first time
in Russia's history, would be significant for Russian
rugby," Thomas told Total Rugby.
"Russia understands, the government understands the
stature of the sport and for the national team to be able to
perform on that stage would be incredibly significant … we want to
set a pathway to become a major rugby playing nation.
"We have got a detailed strategic plan and so far I
think we are doing a good job of sticking to it. It is challenging,
and we want to be a top 12 rugby playing nation by 2015 and we want
to reach the quarter final of Rugby World Cup 2019."
Steve Diamond is adamant, though, that Russia are not content
merely to become the 25th nation to play in Rugby's showpiece
tournament and points out that direct qualification could set up an
intriguing fixture for his charges.
"Qualification for the 2011 World Cup is really
important and not just to get there. We don't want to get
beaten 100-0 by the sides once we get there, the strategic plan is
to go and be competitive against similar nations," explained
Diamond.
"So a great fixture, for example, if we go through in
our current position, we would play the United States (in Pool C).
There would be no bigger fixture in Russia on TV than the former
USSR playing the USA.
"Living here for 18 months, you realise it (Russia) is
such a nationalist country where when the national team of any
sport shows any promise, then the whole country gets behind them.
"I think that to get on the World Cup stage the country
would be behind them."
Tough challenges ahead
Russia's first challenge to realise their World Cup dream
is this weekend's visit of Portugal, who made their debut at
France 2007 after beating Uruguay by a point on aggregate in the
Répechage.
Twelve months ago Russia ran out 18-14 winners in Lisbon,
although they needed a 70th minute penalty from Victor Motorin to
ensure victory after Portugal fought back from a 15-0 half-time
deficit with tries from Gonçalo Foro and Pedro Leal.
This is Portugal's only loss in the European Nations Cup
2010 thus far as Tomaz Morais' side went on to draw 20-20 with
Georgia - the only side to take points off the Lelos - before
beating Germany, Spain and Romania.
This was despite Morais and many of his players constantly
switching between Sevens and fifteens in February and March with
participation in the IRB Sevens World Series, the Rugby World Cup
Sevens and the European Nations Cup.
This time around and with World Cup qualification within
their grasps, Portugal will not suffer that same problem with
separate groups of players for Sevens and fifteens to avoid
tiredness and the difficulties of switching between the two.
The battle for Rugby World Cup 2011 qualification is not only
between Russia and Portugal with Spain's visit to the stadionul
National Arcul de Triumf in Bucharest on Saturday the other
standout European Nations Cup match of the weekend.
Romania are currently on a 12-match winning streak against
Spain, the most recent a 19-10 victory in Madrid a year ago thanks
to Valentin Poparlan's try seven minutes from time. Spain's
only win was 6-0 in their capital back in April 1992.
Defending European Nations Cup champions Georgia are expected
to beat Germany in Tbilisi, their visitors yet to record a victory
on their return to the top tier after nearly two decades away and
having lost 38-5 to the Lelos in Heidelberg.
World Rankings points at stake
However, Rugby World Cup 2011 qualification is not all that
is at stake this weekend with changes on the cards in the IRB World
Rankings with all six sides separated by only nine places with
Russia in 17th and Germany 26th.
Russia climbed above Georgia - albeit only by mere
thousandths - after beating Namibia 30-15 away a fortnight ago and
they will both remain unchanged even with victories by more than 15
points over Portugal and Germany.
The Romanians can improve their rating with victory over
Spain, although only by a maximum of just over two tenths. A 13th
straight loss to Romania will see Spain fall one place to 23rd,
swapping places with Namibia, regardless of the margin.
Romania will only improve their position of 19th if they win
and Russia and/or Georgia both lose on home soil by more than 15
points, a smaller margin could see the three sides separated by
mere hundredths in the IRB World Rankings.
On the other hand, Romania could slip to a new low in the
rankings if they lose to Spain by more than 15 points, although
this would also require Portugal to overcome Russia by a similar
margin in Sochi.
Portugal will return to the Top 20 in the event of victory in
Russia at the expense of Uruguay, whose own RWC 2011 dream lives on
as they await the HSBC Asian Five Nations runner up in the
cross-continental play-offs later this year.
Spain could also climb above Uruguay, although only if they
beat Romania by more than 15 points. With Germany trailing Korea by
two rating points, they must beat Georgia by more than 15 points if
they are to climb to a new high of 24th.
Whatever happens this weekend though there are bound to be
more changes over the next six weeks before the European Nations
Cup concludes with Georgia v Russia in Turkey, Portugal v Romania
in Lisbon and Germany v Spain in Heidelberg.
The IRB World Rankings update every Monday at 12:00 UK
time.
